Breaking Down Michigan & Arizona

Unless you live under a rock or attended the John Hedgecoth School of Remedial Political Activism, you are well aware that tomorrow is a big day in the GOP presidential nomination battle.  Both Michigan and Arizona are up for grabs

These two states are being fought for hard by both Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum.  The momentum for these campaigns could not be more contrasting with Romney ascending and Santorum beginning to look like the latest and perhaps last anti-Romney candidate to rise and then plummet in the polls.  This past week in Arizona we saw what is likely to be the last primary debate.  It was the first time Rick Santorum found himself in the hot seat where the moderator and the other candidates paid him any attention.  This was not a good scenario for the former Senator from Pennsylvania.

Santorum spent the majority of his allotted speaking time either apologizing or defending his voting record in the senate on such issues as raising the federal debt ceiling five times, No Child Left Behind, the Alaskan “bridge to nowhere” and of course his ill-advised Satan and birth control harming women remarks etc.  Then there was his endorsement of liberal Sen. Arlen Spector who switched from the GOP to Democrat in 2009.   Santorum attempted to deflect the criticism aimed at him by attacking Romney on his “Romneycare” in Massachusetts being the blueprint for Obamacre only to have it backfire when the former Governor reminded him that had he not backed Spector, we would not have Obamacare today.

I admire Santorum for the ability to do what few politicians are capable of; admitting when you were wrong.  The problem is, while you are playing defense and asking forgiveness for past mistakes, you are not talking about the issues that put your candidacy is the best light for undecided voters.  This is what we like to call “being off message”.

The debate was clearly the worst possible for the new frontrunner Santorum and it is having lingering effects on his previously held lead in Michigan.  Santorum shined when nobody cared about his candidacy and thus failed to scrutinize or vet him, much the same as Bachmann, Perry, Cain and Gingrich before him.  Mitt Romney on the other hand has been vetted, scrutinized and downright trashed by the above mentioned candidates among others and is still standing at or near the top.  Like Rocky getting pummeled by Ivan Drago, Mitt is still standing and is proving that he will be the one can to go the distance with Obama.

Michigan is an open primary and given David Axelrod’s stated plan to “Kill Romney” and 99% of his tweets being focused exclusively on Mitt, do not be surprised to see alot of Democrats voting for Santorum, the candidate they most want to face in November.

To add additional concerns for Santorum, this past week saw the endorsement of his rival Mitt Romney by both Michigan Governor Rick Snyder and Arizona Governor Jan Brewer.  Add to that the creation of the website www.rickfacts.com and a barrage of television ads on his record being run by Ron Paul seen below:

PREDICTION: 

Michigan             Romney + 4

Arizona               Romney + 7

Golden Gnome to Live Tweet CNN’s Arizona GOP Debate

I will be live tweeting tonight’s Arizona Republican Presidential Debate on CNN at 7 PM Central.

 Following me:

@UnderAUnGnome

MAIL BAG! Golden Gnome Answers Your Emails

Q: Michelle Obama was recently in Iowa on her tell everyone what to and what not to eat tour.  And Fox News just reported that a student’s bag lunch from home that included a turkey sandwhich on a wheat bun with apple juice was deemed not nutritional enough for them by the school and was then replaced with chicken nuggets instead.  I did not see a story on this from you so what are your thoughts?

A: What time is it?

Q:  What did you get Mrs. Gnome for Valentine’s Day?

A:  What else?

Q:  Bachmann dropped out forever ago, but I see her commenting on the presidential race all the time on the news.  What is her play?

A:  She has stated that she is trying to play the role of the great uniter and wants to see the candidates stop tearing one another apart.  In addition, you may not be aware of this, but she recently let go of her chief of staff, Andy Parrish.  Parrish, who oversaw her win in the Ames straw poll is now the 6^th COS in 6 years to be let go by Bachmann.  Ah Michele, I miss your wild hay maker attacks on the other candidates you great uniter you.  If you had stayed in the race, I wonder what could’ve been.

Q:  It has been a while since you last bored us with your republican talking points belittling the hard working men and women of organized labor or voter suppression by way of the photo ID poll tax requirement.  Are you slipping?

A:  A loaded question for certain, but in the interest of time, here is a twofer:

Q:  Did you see what Matt Damon said about Obama not having any balls?

A:  Actually he said that President Obama is no leader and has no balls.  You gotta love Matt Damon.

Q:  What is the latest on the John Edwards drama?

A:  I’m glad you asked.  The judge delayed proceedings in response to a letter from Edwards’ doctor claiming he had a “life threatening condition”.  In my opinion, this would be an ideal time for Rielle Hunter to cheat on him because what could he say?  Talk about a mandate for a hall pass.

Q:  Rick Santorum has taken a lot of flack for stating that birth control is harmful to women.  What do you see this doing to his campaign and the GOP regardless of who the nominee is in November?

A:  Well, there had been speculation by the evangelical Mitt-haters that his religion might be bad for his governing of the country.  Ironically, it is one of their own that is hurting our party and our chances of taking back the White House this year.  For a candidate and a party that is determined to limit the number of abortions in America, it strikes me as foolish to oppose that which prevents unplanned pregnancies when that happens to be the main cause of abortions to begin with.  The only reason Catholics oppose birth control is because it hurts their membership numbers so why he would make such a ridiculous statement is beyond me.  And when the hell did Penn State become a Catholic school?  I missed that one.

Q:  What is the deal with John Deeth commenting on your blog but you not letting others comment?

A:  1)  I like his insight and while I often disagree, I find it entertaining.  If your comments are niether, you are SOL.

2)  His hat wear.

Q:  Krusty was a Huckabee backer and you are clearly a Mitten, why the change?

A:  Thanks for paying attention, NOT.  I said that there are/were three Krusty’s and that I was but one.  So no change.  Wait, actually there has been a change for me since 2008 just not from Huck to Mitt.

Q:  What is your deal with Bob Vander Plaats?  Why do you categorically disagree with everything he does to make this state better for all Iowans?  Are you not the conservative you claim to be or is it personal?

A:  I find him irritating and detrimental to our party.  While I am the first to admit that I will hold any republican’s feet to the fire when they are skirting their responsibility to the voters and to the philosophy of our platform, he is all about Bob.  This latest attention grabbing effort in the name of holding the Governor accountable for lending his name to an anti-bullying event for GLBT students is just sad.  The Governor opposes the bullying of ANY students and yes, gay students are in fact students.  So Bob, don’t go away mad, just go away.

RIP RPI

The presidential race has been getting really exciting as of late with a two man race between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum (which I’ll cover later) and the state of the Republican Party of Iowa has been pretty much all the local political news, but there are a lot of other things going on of note too.  Not that I won’t touch on the above mentioned topics though.

RIP RPI  On Saturday, the Iowa GOP’s state central committee elected A.J. Spiker as the new chairman to replace the recently resigned Matt Strawn.  A Ron Paulbot in charge of the GOP.  My thoughts on this FUBAR are well documented.   Make my Kool-Aid cherry please.

Obama Girl  This has not been a particularly good news cycle for the President.  Let me just start with the public relations let down of learning that the Obama Girl has indicated that she is not so sure she will support Barack Obama’s re-election.  Citing her concerns that he hasn’t really done anything he said he would in the campaign,  she says she may support Ron Paul instead.  Go figure.

I Beg Your Pardon  Speaking of bad press for President Obama, he recently announced that he would be returning approximately $200,000 in campaign cash donations from the Chicago brothers of Juan Rojas “Pepe” Cardona.  This Pepe guy is a casino magnate who skipped bail in Iowa back in the nineties for drug and fraud charges.  The brothers successfully got a pardon for Pepe from Obama on drug smuggling charges in New Mexico, a federal crime, but the President cannot help them on state charges in Iowa.  Hence their pardon mule and fmr. Iowa Democratic Party Chairman Gordon Fischer acted on their behalf seeking a pardon from Iowa Governor Chester J. Culver or Chet Not Stupid to you and me.

The Johnson County Attorney (Iowa City) Janet Lyness, a Democrat, said that “Pepe did not deserve a pardon”, that “he hurt a lot of innocent people and has yet to take responsibility.”  She further stated that “she can think of few people less deserving of a pardon.”

There are so many things wrong with this, where do I even start?  Look, selling pardons is wrong.  It doesn’t matter what party you belong to, whether its Obama, Culver, Huckabee or Barbour.  There is so much shame in it.

PAC MAN  So much for the President’s self righteous condemnation of super PACs to compete with union campaign spending.   President Obama strongly opposed the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling in 2010 stripping away some of the limits on campaign donations and allowing for the super PACs to raise unlimited amounts of money without having to disclose the sources.  A funny yet predictable flip flop happened on the way to his re-election campaign.    Obama now is actively soliciting major Democratic donors to get in touch with Priorities USA, a super PAC formed by two former close aides to the President.  To add insult to this gross change of tune, Obama’s cabinet members will be appearing at Priorities USA fundraising events to speak to those in attendance.

Obama’s campaign manager, Jim Messina cited the need for a super PAC because they can’t “allow for two sets of rules.”  Where was this guy when labor unions were spending unlimited amounts of union dues without the consent of their individual members for the election of Democrats I wonder?

N.O. Spiker

Tomorrow, the Republican Party of Iowa’s state central committee will likely elect a new chairman to replace Matt Strawn who resigned last week.  I warned of the possibility that the fallout had the potential to be worse than the status quo.  The first such worse alternative announced almost immediately (Dave Funk), and I had some spirited yet informed analysis of that train wreck.  We now have two other candidates that currently serve on the state central committee who have entered the race, Bill Schickel and A.J. Spiker.  Here is a plug for another good analysis on the chairman race but he failed to list mine as a related article (F.U. Craig).

Schickel currently serves as the Co-Chairman of the Iowa GOP and has been publicly endorsed by Governor Branstad.  He’s generally viewed by those who know him as a really good guy, so unless an unknown super candidate emerges at the last minute, Schickel would be my choice for chairman by default.  It’s not so much a ringing endorsement of him as it is a repudiation of the alternatives.  My thoughts on Dave Funk is well known as to why he is an unacceptable option.  Here is why the third choice is far, far worse than even Funk.

A.J. Spiker serves on the state central committee and was the Iowa Chairman for Ron Paul.  Yes, you read that right.  Spiker is one of five members of the SCC who sold out their responsibility to represent their district impartially and made his role one of advocacy for a candidate competing in the Ames Straw Poll and the Iowa Caucuses.  Those lines should never be blurred either directly or indirectly.  Not ever.  Chairman Strawn was maligned for being in the bag for Mitt Romney rightly or wrongly, but even the perception of bias is very problematic.  Spiker could care less and that is huge problem.

The last thing our party needs is a chairman who spends the next 2-4 years laying the groundwork for a Rand Paul presidential candidacy.  Ron Paul will be the guest speaker at the next Reagan Dinner and Rand Paul will be the speaker at the Lincoln Day Dinner.  Then they will alternate each year.  And did I mention that the Ron Paulbots aren’t even republicans?  A possible Chairman A. J. Spiker is my opinion is an N.O. Spiker

Post Apocalyptic Iowa GOP

And so it begins.  I warned of the fallout of Matt Strawn’s resignation and already my point is being proven.  Yes, Strawn screwed himself and the Iowa Caucuses by doing irreparable harm to the Ames Straw Poll and the Caucuses themselves by his involvement with a special interest group and of course his abysmal handling of the caucus vote tally certification.  I get all that.  Oh and he was a high profile chairman who was never shy about getting in front of a camera and many started calling the state GOP, the Republican Party of Strawn.  Ok, I don’t think I’ve left anything out.

The void in question is the things that Matt Strawn did very well.  Organization and fundraising are tools that were sorely missing before Strawn took the helm of the state party.  I do feel he should have implemented a legitimate candidate training program the likes we haven’t seen since Chairman Kayne Robinson’s leadership for example.

So who can or will fill the leadership void?  The first to throw his hat into the ring is a familiar name, Dave Funk.  Funk, who got throttled in his bid for the GOP nomination for Congress by both Sen. Brad Zahn and Jim Gibbons is not that guy in my opinion.

Following his standard operating campaign procedure, Funk is playing the “I’m the first to declare my candidacy so nobody else needs to run” or “I called shotgun” game.  It did not work out too well when he ran for Congress in 2010 nor when he ran for Polk County Supervisor.  No organization or fundraising is a recipe for failure and Funk takes that with him in his bid to be state GOP chairman.

We need a candidate that is well versed in organization and party building (Strike 1 for Funk).  We need a chairman who has the ability to energize the GOP donor base and give a reason for new donors to get involved (Strike 2 for Funk).  We need a chairman candidate that is either high profile enough to be synonymous with leadership and success or low profile enough to not make the party an apparatus to promote themselves en route to a run for elected office (Strike 3 for Funk).

George Clinton may want the Funk, but I and the Iowa Republican Party do not.

Mitt Trumps Newt, Santorum and the Other Guy

Donald Trump is set to announce his endorsement of Governor Mitt Romney today in Las Vegas, Nevada. Is this good news for Mitt Romney? Sure, but it really does not matter in the race for the GOP presidential nomination much.

So why is this a big deal? I’ll tell you. This ends the fears many of us in the GOP had about a potential third party run by a fiscally conservative foreign policy hawk like Trump doing to our nominee what H. Ross Perot did to President George H. W. Bush in 1992.  If you want Obama gone, it will not happen with a legit third party candidate taking north of 3 to 14% of the vote in November.

Mitt Romney is all smiles today (ok he’s always smiling) because he knows everything he has done to take back the White House will not be a complete waste of time with Trump running as an Independent.  In addition, if you have ever seen The Donald unleash his wrath via a public relations blitzkrieg on anybody he’s pissed at or uses to get attention for the Trump brand, you will know that Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum and the other guy will now have to face a bombastic attack dog that gets covered by the media.  In politics, for them we call that a moment where you say, “oh shit!”

Newt Gingrich is the only other candidate who had a shot at landing this endorsement and his surrogates including that guy who seems to be Morton Downey Jr.’s lovechild, R.C. Hammond, have been touting a Trump endorsement coming today.  Imagine the egg on their face that there is an endorsement coming today, but not for Newt as they claimed.  Speaker Gingrich, who made a critical flaw in attacking free enterprise and the entrepreneurial spirit, drew the ire of The Donald as one would expect.  And just when Newt had seen a little hope that maybe his mistake was behind him, Trump emerges to remind everyone.  Newt is now effectively done as the “Mitt alternative”.  Time for Santorum to step up or get out because Newt blew it.